Thanks to big shifts in several key races, Democrats now have a 73 percent chance of winning the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast, and a 72 percent chance according to polls-only. Both those numbers are up by more than 15 percentage points from last week, when the polls-plus model gave them a 56 percent chance and the polls-only model 54 percent.
By virtue of simple math, the outlook favors Democrats because they have far more paths to victory. They need to pick up four seats to win the majority if Trump loses, and believe Wisconsin and Illinois are in the bag.
“A lot of them, which have been pretty tight for many months now, are moving in our favor,” said Sadie Weiner, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s communications director. “And we’re sitting two-and-a-half weeks out of the election with the wind at our back.”
In our last Senate update, I noted a growing divergence between our Senate and presidential forecasts. The presidential race had moved quickly toward Democrat Hillary Clinton; the battle for control of the Senate had ticked a bit toward the GOP. But the forecasts have snapped back into closer alignment as Democratic Senate chances have improved.
What’s so interesting about the upswing in Democrats’ fortunes is that many Senate races haven’t shifted much. In the average Senate race, the margin separating the two major-party candidates has shifted toward the Democrat by just over 1 percentage point over the last week, according to our polls-only model. But that includes noncompetitive races. Control of the Senate is coming down to six key states, with Democrats needing to gain four seats to win a majority if Clinton wins the White House. And in the crucial contests, there has been more movement.
Yet with Trump flailing even in places like Utah and Georgia, it's remarkable that Senate Republicans are hanging around as they defend 24 seats to Democrats’ 10. Republicans acknowledge a near-sweep of the most contested states will be difficult, but take pride that Rob Portman of Ohio, McCain of Arizona and Chuck Grassley of Iowa look like locks for reelection.
“If I was a Democrat and I was counting on places like Missouri and Indiana in a very unstable election year for my majority, I would not be comfortable,” said Kevin McLaughlin, the deputy executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. ”Even [Democratic] polling would show that voters in these six states don't see Trump and Republicans as one and the same.”
Strategists from both parties privately also agree on this: An anti-Trump wave has yet to take shape across the Senate map. Democrats hope his refusal to say he’ll accept the election results will change that, but time is running out.
Democrat Maggie Hassan’s chances are also up in New Hampshire. While the race in New Hampshire has been tight all year, Hassan received one of her best polls of the campaign this week. A University of New Hampshire poll released Thursday evening showed her leading Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte by 9 percentage points. While it’s too early to know if this poll is an outlier or the start of a new trend, Ayotte has had a difficult time figuring out how to deal with Trump. She called him a role model during a debate but retracted that afterward. Now, she won’t even vote for him. Trump, of course, remains a heavy underdog in the Granite State.
The other big mover is Nevada. Sen. Harry Reid’s hand-picked successor, Catherine Cortez Masto, has been trailing Republican Joe Heck most of the year. She had led in only three polls out of 21 released before Oct. 10. Since that time, though, she’s posted three leads and has led in the average poll by a little over 1 percentage point. Cortez Masto may be benefiting from Clinton’s growing advantage in the state. Heck, meanwhile, has struggled in appeasing Trump voters while distancing himself from the Republican nominee for president. Although the race remains tight, remember that four years ago in Nevada, Republican Dean Heller won his race by just 1 point, despite facing off against a scandal-ridden Democrat, Shelley Berkley. Cortez Masto doesn’t have the same baggage Berkley did.
All three of these races remain close, as do the other two big contests: North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Democrat Katie McGinty and Republican Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania continue to trade polling leads, while Republican Richard Burr’s advantage over Democrat Deborah Ross in North Carolina has been slowly shrinking. Those races look likely to go down to the wire.
The thing to remember, though, is that if Illinois and Wisconsin stay safely blue and Bayh continues to maintain an edge in Indiana, Democrats only need to win two of the other five close races. And they’re now favored (if only slightly in most) in more of those races than Republicans are. You can see why Democrats now have about the best shot of winning back the Senate that they have had all year.
By virtue of simple math, the outlook favors Democrats because they have far more paths to victory. They need to pick up four seats to win the majority if Trump loses, and believe Wisconsin and Illinois are in the bag.
“A lot of them, which have been pretty tight for many months now, are moving in our favor,” said Sadie Weiner, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s communications director. “And we’re sitting two-and-a-half weeks out of the election with the wind at our back.”
In our last Senate update, I noted a growing divergence between our Senate and presidential forecasts. The presidential race had moved quickly toward Democrat Hillary Clinton; the battle for control of the Senate had ticked a bit toward the GOP. But the forecasts have snapped back into closer alignment as Democratic Senate chances have improved.
What’s so interesting about the upswing in Democrats’ fortunes is that many Senate races haven’t shifted much. In the average Senate race, the margin separating the two major-party candidates has shifted toward the Democrat by just over 1 percentage point over the last week, according to our polls-only model. But that includes noncompetitive races. Control of the Senate is coming down to six key states, with Democrats needing to gain four seats to win a majority if Clinton wins the White House. And in the crucial contests, there has been more movement.
Yet with Trump flailing even in places like Utah and Georgia, it's remarkable that Senate Republicans are hanging around as they defend 24 seats to Democrats’ 10. Republicans acknowledge a near-sweep of the most contested states will be difficult, but take pride that Rob Portman of Ohio, McCain of Arizona and Chuck Grassley of Iowa look like locks for reelection.
“If I was a Democrat and I was counting on places like Missouri and Indiana in a very unstable election year for my majority, I would not be comfortable,” said Kevin McLaughlin, the deputy executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. ”Even [Democratic] polling would show that voters in these six states don't see Trump and Republicans as one and the same.”
Strategists from both parties privately also agree on this: An anti-Trump wave has yet to take shape across the Senate map. Democrats hope his refusal to say he’ll accept the election results will change that, but time is running out.
Democrat Maggie Hassan’s chances are also up in New Hampshire. While the race in New Hampshire has been tight all year, Hassan received one of her best polls of the campaign this week. A University of New Hampshire poll released Thursday evening showed her leading Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte by 9 percentage points. While it’s too early to know if this poll is an outlier or the start of a new trend, Ayotte has had a difficult time figuring out how to deal with Trump. She called him a role model during a debate but retracted that afterward. Now, she won’t even vote for him. Trump, of course, remains a heavy underdog in the Granite State.
The other big mover is Nevada. Sen. Harry Reid’s hand-picked successor, Catherine Cortez Masto, has been trailing Republican Joe Heck most of the year. She had led in only three polls out of 21 released before Oct. 10. Since that time, though, she’s posted three leads and has led in the average poll by a little over 1 percentage point. Cortez Masto may be benefiting from Clinton’s growing advantage in the state. Heck, meanwhile, has struggled in appeasing Trump voters while distancing himself from the Republican nominee for president. Although the race remains tight, remember that four years ago in Nevada, Republican Dean Heller won his race by just 1 point, despite facing off against a scandal-ridden Democrat, Shelley Berkley. Cortez Masto doesn’t have the same baggage Berkley did.
All three of these races remain close, as do the other two big contests: North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Democrat Katie McGinty and Republican Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania continue to trade polling leads, while Republican Richard Burr’s advantage over Democrat Deborah Ross in North Carolina has been slowly shrinking. Those races look likely to go down to the wire.
The thing to remember, though, is that if Illinois and Wisconsin stay safely blue and Bayh continues to maintain an edge in Indiana, Democrats only need to win two of the other five close races. And they’re now favored (if only slightly in most) in more of those races than Republicans are. You can see why Democrats now have about the best shot of winning back the Senate that they have had all year.
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